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law of truly large numbers
The law of truly large numbers, attributed to Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller, states that with a sample size large enough, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. Because we never find it notable when likely events occur, we highlight unlikely events and notice them more. The law seeks to debunk one element of supposed supernatural phenomenology.
==Example==
For a simplified example of the law, assume that a given event happens with a probability of 0.1% in one trial. Then the probability that this unlikely event does ''not'' happen in a single trial is 99.9% = 0.999.
In a sample of 1000 independent trials, the probability that the event does not happen in any of them is 0.9991000, or 36.8%. The probability that the event happens at least once in 1000 trials is then 1 − 0.368 = 0.632 or 63.2%. The probability that it happens at least once in 10,000 trials is 1 - 0.99910000 = 0.99995 = 99.995%.
This means that this "unlikely event" has a probability of 63.2% of happening if 1000 independent trials are conducted, or over 99.9% for 10,000 trials. In other words, a highly unlikely event, given enough trials with some fixed number of draws per trial, is even more likely to occur.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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